WASCHI
Washington Commanders @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bears about 3.0 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bears win 7,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,560 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.3 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · CHI n/a | WAS 26% · CHI 74% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +291 · CHI -291 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 28, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 8 and CHI by 25.
Side by side
| WAS | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | 2025 Wk 6 | CHI 25 @ WAS 24 | CHI | WAS -5.5 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | CHI 15 @ WAS 18 | WAS | WAS -1.5 |
| 2023-10-05 | 2023 Wk 5 | CHI 40 @ WAS 20 | CHI | WAS -6 |
| 2022-10-13 | 2022 Wk 6 | WAS 12 @ CHI 7 | WAS | WAS -1 |
| 2019-09-23 | 2019 Wk 3 | CHI 31 @ WAS 15 | CHI | CHI -5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away