WASGB
Washington Commanders @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Packers win 7,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to Packers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Packers rank 15th (+0.9), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,670 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Packers rank 32nd in penalty yards per game (73.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -7.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · GB n/a | WAS 27% · GB 73% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +275 · GB -275 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 27, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 8 and GB by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-11 | 2025 Wk 2 | WAS 18 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -3.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | GB 21 @ WAS 23 | WAS | GB -4 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | WAS 10 @ GB 24 | GB | GB -8.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | WAS 15 @ GB 20 | GB | GB -13 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | GB 17 @ WAS 31 | WAS | GB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away