WASJAX
Washington Commanders @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Jaguars about 4.2 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Jaguars rank 2nd (+8.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 7,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,040 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 6 or more.
- History: Commanders won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 25th in penalty yards per game (68.7).
- Weak spot: Jaguars rank 24th in pass rush, sacks per dropback (4.5%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -9.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · JAX n/a | WAS 20% · JAX 80% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +390 · JAX -390 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 28, WAS 19.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 6 and JAX by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | JAX 22 @ WAS 28 | WAS | WAS -3 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | WAS 16 @ JAX 13 | WAS | JAX -7.5 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | JAX 10 @ WAS 41 | WAS | WAS -5 |
| 2010-12-26 | 2010 Wk 16 | WAS 20 @ JAX 17 | WAS | JAX -7 |
| 2006-10-01 | 2006 Wk 4 | JAX 30 @ WAS 36 | WAS | JAX -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away