WASLAC
Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Commanders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Chargers 28th (2.7).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.2 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · LAC n/a | WAS 40% · LAC 60% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +149 · LAC -149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 24, WAS 21.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 13 and LAC by 20.
Side by side
| WAS | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 0-6 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | WAS 27 @ LAC 10 | WAS | LAC -2.5 |
| 2021-09-12 | 2021 Wk 1 | LAC 20 @ WAS 16 | LAC | WAS -2.5 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | WAS 13 @ LAC 30 | LAC | LAC -6 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | LAC 24 @ WAS 30 | WAS | WAS -1 |
| 2010-01-03 | 2009 Wk 17 | WAS 20 @ LAC 23 | LAC | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away