WASPHI
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,940 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 4,060 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Eagles 31st (2.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · PHI n/a | WAS 41% · PHI 59% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +146 · PHI -146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 24, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 13 and PHI by 20.
Side by side
| WAS | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | WAS 22 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | WAS 24 @ PHI 17 | WAS | PHI -3 |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025 Wk 16 | PHI 29 @ WAS 18 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2024 Conf. title | WAS 23 @ PHI 55 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | PHI 33 @ WAS 36 | WAS | PHI -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away