Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.0 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Nets 28th (-9.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Nets -9.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.7 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 7,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Injury report: the Pistons list Jalen Duren (out). That is about 3 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Nets win 2,670 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DET -8 | DET -8 |
| Total points | 222 | 222 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · BKN n/a | DET 73% · BKN 27% |
| Fair moneyline | DET -274 · BKN +274 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 107, Pistons 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Pistons by 25 and Nets by 9.
- The Nets cover the spread in 48% of simulations.
- The game goes over 222 in 50%.
Who's playing?
DET Pistons
- Jalen Duren Out Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain
- Isaiah Joe Out Injury/Illness - Right Hip Contusion
- Elijah Harkless Available G League - Two - Way
- Isaac Jones Available G League - Two - Way
- Ugonna Onyenso Out G League - Two - Way
BKN Nets
- Ben Saraf Out G League - On Assignment
- Noah Clowney Available Injury/Illness - Illness
- Tyler Bilodeau Out G League - Two - Way
- Egor Demin Out Injury/Illness - Right Bone Bruise
- Joshua Jefferson Out G League - On Assignment
- Grant Nelson Out G League - Two - Way
- Drake Powell Available G League - On Assignment
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| DET | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 0-4 |
| +7.0 5 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 113.2 12 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 106.2 2 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 54.2% 16 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 51.4% 1 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 15.0 24 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 30.8% 3 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.8% 15 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 102.1 19 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 2025-26 | DET 138 @ BKN 100 | DET |
| 2026-03-07 | 2025-26 | BKN 107 @ DET 105 | BKN |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | BKN 77 @ DET 130 | DET |
| 2025-11-07 | 2025-26 | DET 125 @ BKN 107 | DET |
| 2025-03-01 | 2024-25 | BKN 94 @ DET 115 | DET |
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works