NBA track record
Every NBA prediction is logged before tip-off and graded afterwards. Nothing is deleted. NFL track record · College football
Live picks
The live NBA record starts with the first graded game. Every pick is logged before tip-off and graded after the final buzzer, wins and losses alike.
Backtest, 2019-20 onward (8,915 games)
Each game day was predicted using only games played before it. Settings were chosen on 2018-19 and never re-tuned on these games.
| Winners picked | Log loss | |
|---|---|---|
| Closing betting line | 67.5% | 0.6006 |
| AZMango model | 67.6% | 0.6009 |
| Our power ratings, no line | 65.6% | 0.6182 |
The honest summary: we match the closing betting line; we do not beat it. Our own adjustments (injuries, back-to-backs, rest, travel) did not improve on the closing spread over the last two seasons, so the guard rail has them switched off. The market already prices the injury report in by tip-off. What we add is the explanation, a number for every pairing, and probabilities you can check.
Are the percentages honest?
| We said | Games | Average call | Actually won | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50%-60% | 2331 | 56% | 55% | |
| 60%-70% | 3032 | 65% | 64% | |
| 70%-80% | 2275 | 75% | 75% | |
| 80%-90% | 1134 | 84% | 85% | |
| 90%-100% | 143 | 92% | 94% |
Bars: our average call (light) against how often those teams won (dark).