Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Injury report: the Magic list Paolo Banchero (out). That is about 9 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Raptors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,360 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 11 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | TOR -5.5 | TOR -5.5 |
| Total points | 227 | 227 |
| Win chance | ORL n/a · TOR n/a | ORL 34% · TOR 66% |
| Fair moneyline | ORL +198 · TOR -198 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Raptors 117, Magic 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Magic by 11 and Raptors by 22.
- The Raptors cover the spread in 50% of simulations.
- The game goes over 227 in 49%.
Who's playing?
ORL Magic
- Paolo Banchero Out Injury/Illness - Right Low Grade High Ankle Sprain
- Jalen Suggs Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
- Jonathan Isaac Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Izaiyah Nelson Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Injury Recovery
- Noah Penda Out Injury/Illness - Right Partially Torn Hamstring
TOR Raptors
- Nate Bittle Out Injury/Illness - Right Avulsion Fracture
- Kawhi Leonard Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Injury Management
- Malachi Smith Out G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| ORL | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -0.2 17 | Net rating | +3.0 9 |
| 110.4 22 | Offensive rating | 112.4 15 |
| 110.6 9 | Defensive rating | 109.4 7 |
| 52.4% 28 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 15 |
| 53.9% 9 | Opponent eFG% | 53.8% 8 |
| 13.9 11 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 8 |
| 24.8% 19 | Offensive rebound % | 25.7% 15 |
| 34.0% 29 | 3-point % | 35.2% 21 |
| 103.1 12 | Pace | 101.8 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | ORL 99 @ TOR 129 | TOR |
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | ORL 87 @ TOR 139 | TOR |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | TOR 120 @ ORL 130 | ORL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | ORL 106 @ TOR 107 | TOR |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ ORL 113 | TOR |
Game chat
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works