Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Injury report: the Pacers list Obi Toppin (out), T.J. McConnell (out), Tyrese Haliburton (out). That is about 14 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Simulation: the Heat win 7,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Heat -7.8.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 2,620 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | MIA -8.5 | MIA -8.5 |
| Total points | 237 | 237 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MIA n/a | IND 26% · MIA 74% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +282 · MIA -282 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 123, Pacers 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 9 and Heat by 25.
- The Heat cover the spread in 50% of simulations.
- The game goes over 237 in 49%.
Who's playing?
IND Pacers
- Obi Toppin Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Andrew Nembhard Available Injury/Illness - Neck Stiffness / Soreness
- T.J. McConnell Out Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain
- Tyrese Haliburton Out Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- Aaron Nesmith Available Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- Ivica Zubac Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
- Ben Sheppard Out Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Surgery
- Johnny Furphy Out Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery
MIA Heat
- Simone Fontecchio Available Injury/Illness - Illness
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| IND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ IND 135 | IND |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | MIA 99 @ IND 123 | IND |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | IND 116 @ MIA 142 | MIA |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | IND 120 @ MIA 125 | MIA |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | IND 128 @ MIA 115 | IND |
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works