IND
MIA
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Pacers 26th (-7.2).
- Simulation: the Heat win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 24th.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Point differential per game: Heat 12th (+1.7), Pacers 26th (-7.5).
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Heat -7.8.
- Upset odds: the Pacers win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 237 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · MIA n/a | IND 41% · MIA 59% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +142 · MIA -142 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 120, Pacers 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 14 and Heat by 19.
Side by side
| IND | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | MIA 118 @ IND 135 | IND |
| 2026-01-10 | 2025-26 | MIA 99 @ IND 123 | IND |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | IND 116 @ MIA 142 | MIA |
| 2025-02-28 | 2024-25 | IND 120 @ MIA 125 | MIA |
| 2025-01-02 | 2024-25 | IND 128 @ MIA 115 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works