Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Mavericks +2.0.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Injury report: the Rockets list Alperen Sengun (out), Reed Sheppard (out). That is about 15 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,350 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | HOU -5.5 | HOU -5.5 |
| Total points | 224 | 224 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DAL n/a | HOU 66% · DAL 34% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -198 · DAL +198 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 109, Rockets 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 22 and Mavericks by 11.
- The Mavericks cover the spread in 49% of simulations.
- The game goes over 224 in 49%.
Who's playing?
HOU Rockets
- Alperen Sengun Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Reed Sheppard Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Steven Adams Out Injury/Illness - Right Soleus Strain
- Quadir Copeland Out G League - Two - Way
- Julian Phillips Out G League - Two - Way
- Marcus Smart Questionable Injury/Illness - Left Forearm Strain
DAL Mavericks
- Naji Marshall Available Injury/Illness - Illness
- Sergio de Larrea Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Sprain
- Santi Aldama Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
- Tarik Biberovic Out Injury/Illness - Right Heel Bursitis
- Dereck Lively II Out Injury/Illness - Right Foot Surgery
- Caleb Martin Available Injury/Illness - Right Thumb Splint
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | DAL 110 @ HOU 128 | HOU |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ HOU 111 | HOU |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ DAL 110 | DAL |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | HOU 109 @ DAL 122 | DAL |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ HOU 110 | HOU |
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works