HOU
DAL
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Mavericks 23rd (-4.8).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Mavericks +2.0.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,500 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.4 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Mavericks win 3,500 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mavericks 13th (14.0), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.4 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · DAL n/a | HOU 65% · DAL 35% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU -186 · DAL +186 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 112, Rockets 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Rockets by 22 and Mavericks by 12.
Side by side
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-2 |
| +5.2 6 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 114.6 8 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 109.4 6 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 54.0% 18 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 53.0% 6 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.4 26 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 34.3% 1 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 36.2% 11 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 100.0 27 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | DAL 110 @ HOU 128 | HOU |
| 2026-01-31 | 2025-26 | DAL 107 @ HOU 111 | HOU |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | HOU 104 @ DAL 110 | DAL |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | HOU 109 @ DAL 122 | DAL |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | DAL 102 @ HOU 110 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works