Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nuggets -3.2, Suns -14.3.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 6,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 13th.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,780 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Game-time decision: Cameron Johnson is questionable for the Nuggets.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | DEN -4 | DEN -4 |
| Total points | 231.5 | 231.5 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · PHX n/a | DEN 62% · PHX 38% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -165 · PHX +165 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 114, Nuggets 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 20 and Suns by 12.
- The Suns cover the spread in 47% of simulations.
- The game goes over 231.5 in 51%.
Who's playing?
DEN Nuggets
- Cameron Johnson Questionable Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- Julian Strawther Out Injury/Illness - Left Knee Sprain
- Alpha Diallo Doubtful Injury/Illness - Right wrist sprain/Personal Reasons
- Spencer Jones Out Injury/Illness - Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management
PHX Suns
- Oso Ighodaro Questionable Injury/Illness - Right Oblique Strain
- Mark Williams Out Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Surgery
- Drew Timme Out G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| DEN | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ PHX 123 | DEN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | DEN 130 @ PHX 112 | DEN |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | PHX 111 @ DEN 133 | DEN |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 141 @ DEN 149 | DEN |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | DEN 122 @ PHX 105 | DEN |
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works