DEN
PHX
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Nuggets -3.2, Suns -14.3.
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 16th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Suns 16th (+0.2).
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Suns defense that ranks 13th.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 5,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Suns 4th (16.0), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Suns 7th (28.7%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 228.6 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · PHX n/a | DEN 52% · PHX 48% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN -110 · PHX +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 114, Nuggets 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Nuggets by 17 and Suns by 16.
Side by side
| DEN | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 1-2 |
| +4.1 7 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 118.2 1 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 114.1 21 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 56.9% 2 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 54.1% 13 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 12.7 3 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 23.3% 28 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 38.8% 1 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 102.1 20 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | 2025-26 | DEN 125 @ PHX 123 | DEN |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | DEN 130 @ PHX 112 | DEN |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | PHX 111 @ DEN 133 | DEN |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | PHX 141 @ DEN 149 | DEN |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | DEN 122 @ PHX 105 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works