Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
NBA 2026-27 ·
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Injury report: the Kings list Maxime Raynaud (out). That is about 6 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 8,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.7 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Game-time decision: Ty Jerome is questionable for the Grizzlies.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 1,890 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -11.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · MEM n/a | SAC 19% · MEM 81% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +428 · MEM -428 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 122, Kings 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 6 and Grizzlies by 28.
Who's playing?
SAC Kings
- Maxime Raynaud Out Injury/Illness - Right Patella Subluxation
- Dylan Cardwell Out Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain
- Keegan Murray Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Capsulitis
- Sean Pedulla Out G League - Two - Way
- Ben Simmons Out Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
MEM Grizzlies
- Ty Jerome Questionable Injury/Illness - Upper Back Soreness
- Quinten Post Doubtful Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- Scotty Pippen Jr. Questionable Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| SAC | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 5-0 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | MEM 123 @ SAC 112 | MEM |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | SAC 123 @ MEM 114 | SAC |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | MEM 129 @ SAC 125 | MEM |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ SAC 107 | MEM |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | SAC 96 @ MEM 137 | MEM |
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.