SAC
MEM
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 8,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.8 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,000 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 24th of 30 in points allowed per game (119.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -10.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.7 |
| Win chance | SAC n/a · MEM n/a | SAC 20% · MEM 80% |
| Fair moneyline | SAC +400 · MEM -400 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 122, Kings 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Kings by 6 and Grizzlies by 27.
Side by side
| SAC | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 5-0 |
| -10.1 29 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 108.3 28 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 118.5 28 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 52.4% 29 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 57.3% 29 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.1 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 25.8% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 33.8% 30 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 102.4 16 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | MEM 123 @ SAC 112 | MEM |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | SAC 123 @ MEM 114 | SAC |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | MEM 129 @ SAC 125 | MEM |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | MEM 115 @ SAC 107 | MEM |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025-26 | SAC 96 @ MEM 137 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works