Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
NBA 2026-27 ·
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Injury report: the Timberwolves list Anthony Edwards (out). That is about 6 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 7,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Back-to-back: the Timberwolves played last night; teams on no rest lose about 2 points of strength.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Spurs +6.6.
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 2,770 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 9 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -7.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.1 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · SAS n/a | MIN 28% · SAS 72% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +261 · SAS -261 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 118, Timberwolves 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 9 and Spurs by 24.
Who's playing?
MIN Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Arthroscopy
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
SAS Spurs
- Tobias Harris Out Injury/Illness - Left Calf Strain
- Jayden Quaintance Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| MIN | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Playoffs | SAS 139 @ MIN 109 | SAS |
| 2026-05-12 | Playoffs | MIN 97 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2026-05-10 | Playoffs | SAS 109 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2026-05-08 | Playoffs | SAS 115 @ MIN 108 | SAS |
| 2026-05-06 | Playoffs | MIN 95 @ SAS 133 | SAS |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.