MIN
SAS
Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Timberwolves 11th (+2.6).
- Point differential per game: Spurs 2nd (+7.9), Timberwolves 11th (+2.7).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Spurs 6th (13.3), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Timberwolves win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +12.6, Spurs +6.6.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 13 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Spurs 14th (35.8%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Timberwolves 16th (14.3), Spurs 25th (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.1 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · SAS n/a | MIN 39% · SAS 61% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +156 · SAS -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 117, Timberwolves 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Timberwolves by 13 and Spurs by 20.
Side by side
| MIN | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 3-2 |
| +2.6 11 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 112.7 13 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 110.1 8 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 55.1% 9 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 52.8% 5 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.3 16 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.0% 13 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 36.7% 6 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 103.8 10 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Playoffs | SAS 139 @ MIN 109 | SAS |
| 2026-05-12 | Playoffs | MIN 97 @ SAS 126 | SAS |
| 2026-05-10 | Playoffs | SAS 109 @ MIN 114 | MIN |
| 2026-05-08 | Playoffs | SAS 115 @ MIN 108 | SAS |
| 2026-05-06 | Playoffs | MIN 95 @ SAS 133 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works