Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27 ·
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Injury report: the Thunder list Chet Holmgren (out), Alex Caruso (out), Cason Wallace (out). That is about 16 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Thunder +3.6.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 5,490 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Injury report: the Rockets list Alperen Sengun (out), Reed Sheppard (out). That is about 15 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Back-to-back: the Rockets played last night; teams on no rest lose about 2 points of strength.
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 4,510 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Rockets 19th (13.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.6 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · HOU n/a | OKC 45% · HOU 55% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +122 · HOU -122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 112, Thunder 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 15 and Rockets by 18.
Who's playing?
OKC Thunder
- Chet Holmgren Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Patellar Tendinitis
- Alex Caruso Out Injury/Illness - Right Ankle Sprain
- Cason Wallace Out Injury/Illness - Left Shoulder Labral Tear
- Jalen Williams Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Surgery
- Thomas Sorber Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Surgery
- Nikola Topic Out Injury/Illness - Low back surgery
HOU Rockets
- Alperen Sengun Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Reed Sheppard Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Steven Adams Out Injury/Illness - Right Soleus Strain
- Quadir Copeland Out G League - Two - Way
- Julian Phillips Out G League - Two - Way
- Marcus Smart Questionable Injury/Illness - Left Forearm Strain
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| OKC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 112 @ OKC 106 | HOU |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ HOU 91 | OKC |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | OKC 111 @ HOU 125 | HOU |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | HOU 128 @ OKC 137 | OKC |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.