OKC
HOU
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Thunder +3.6.
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Rockets 1st (34.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (12.5), Rockets 26th (15.4).
- Upset odds: the Thunder win 3,990 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Thunder 1st (16.4), Rockets 19th (13.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.6 |
| Win chance | OKC n/a · HOU n/a | OKC 40% · HOU 60% |
| Fair moneyline | OKC +150 · HOU -150 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 113, Thunder 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Thunder by 13 and Rockets by 20.
Side by side
| OKC | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +10.0 1 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 115.4 4 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 105.5 1 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 55.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 51.8% 3 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 12.5 1 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 23.4% 27 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 36.2% 10 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 102.2 18 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | HOU 112 @ OKC 106 | HOU |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | OKC 111 @ HOU 91 | OKC |
| 2025-10-21 | 2025-26 | HOU 124 @ OKC 125 | OKC |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | OKC 111 @ HOU 125 | HOU |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | HOU 128 @ OKC 137 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works