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BKN

Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers

NBA 2026-27 ·

IND
Standings

Game day

No over/under posted yet · our projected total 233

  1. Starting lineups Teams usually confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.
  2. Tip-off
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.

What if?

Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12.5 points in a typical NBA game).

48%Nets
52%Pacers

Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.

Advantages Why Pacers can win

  1. Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
  2. Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers -4.4, Nets -11.0.
  3. Simulation: the Pacers win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
  4. Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
  5. Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Nets 29th (15.9).
  6. Team matchup: where the Pacers can take advantage. Their ball pressure (23rd of 30) meets the Nets ball security (29th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their shooting efficiency (22nd of 30) meets the Nets shooting defense (28th): a chance to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. Pace clash: the Pacers play fast (9th of 30 in pace), the Nets slow (24th); whoever sets the tempo gets the game they want.
  7. Star matchup: no key position clearly favors the Pacers. The closest: best player against best player, Pascal Siakam (Pacers: 23.8 pts, 6.7 reb, 3.8 ast, Game Score 17.0; filling in for Tyrese Haliburton, out, left hamstring strain) is about even with Michael Porter Jr. (Nets: 23.9 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 17.0).

Disadvantages Why Pacers may not

  1. Injury report: the Pacers list Obi Toppin (out), T.J. McConnell (out), Tyrese Haliburton (out). That is about 14 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
  2. Upset odds: the Nets win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
  3. Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 16 or more.
  4. Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.9%).
  5. Weak spot: the Pacers rank 27th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.5).
  6. Team matchup: the Nets have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
  7. Star matchup: the key positions lean the Pacers on paper, but Michael Porter Jr. (23.9 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast, Game Score 17.0) is the kind of player who can swing one game.

Team news

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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.

The line and our numbers

MarketAZMango
SpreadNo line yetIND -0.8
Total pointsn/a233
Win chanceBKN n/a · IND n/aBKN 48% · IND 52%
MoneylineBKN +109 · IND -109 (fair)

No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

  • Typical score: Pacers 117, Nets 116.
  • 80% of simulations land between Nets by 16 and Pacers by 17.
See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Who's playing?

BKN Nets

  • Ben Saraf Out G League - On Assignment
  • Noah Clowney Available Injury/Illness - Illness
  • Tyler Bilodeau Out G League - Two - Way
  • Egor Demin Out Injury/Illness - Right Bone Bruise
  • Joshua Jefferson Out G League - On Assignment
  • Grant Nelson Out G League - Two - Way
  • Drake Powell Available G League - On Assignment

IND Pacers

  • Obi Toppin Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
  • Andrew Nembhard Available Injury/Illness - Neck Stiffness / Soreness
  • T.J. McConnell Out Injury/Illness - Right Hamstring Strain
  • Tyrese Haliburton Out Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
  • Aaron Nesmith Available Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
  • Ivica Zubac Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
  • Ben Sheppard Out Injury/Illness - Left Meniscus Surgery
  • Johnny Furphy Out Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery

From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.

Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.

Side by side

BKNIND
0-5Record2-4
-10.0 28Net rating-7.4 26
105.7 30Offensive rating108.5 27
115.7 25Defensive rating115.9 26
52.0% 30Effective FG%53.4% 22
57.1% 28Opponent eFG%55.5% 23
15.9 29Turnovers per 10014.0 12
23.8% 24Offensive rebound %21.9% 29
34.1% 283-point %35.4% 19
100.4 24Pace103.9 9

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

DateSeasonScoreWinner
2026-10-252026-27IND 136 @ BKN 109IND
2026-04-092025-26IND 123 @ BKN 94IND
2026-02-112025-26IND 115 @ BKN 110IND
2025-11-052025-26BKN 112 @ IND 103BKN
2025-03-222024-25BKN 103 @ IND 108IND

Game chat

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    Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

    Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.

    This matchup on any day (power ratings only)