Mango Watch
Where an upset could happen, and what moved since our last look. Across the NFL, college football and the NBA.
Upset meter
Games still to play, ranked by the underdog's chance (the market's price where we have it, otherwise ours, which starts from the betting line when there is one). 100 means a coin flip. "Ratings like the dog" marks games where our own stat ratings, built without the betting line, make the underdog the better team.
| Game | Underdog | Line | Underdog's chance | Upset meter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| College football CONN @ AF | UConn Ratings like the dog | air-force -0.5 | 50% | 100 |
| College basketball MUR vs TNST | Murray State | no line | 50% | 99 |
| NBA PHI @ CHA | Hornets | no line | 48% | 96 |
| College basketball KENT @ LT | Louisiana Tech | no line | 47% | 95 |
| College football ILL @ MD | Maryland | illinois -2.5 | 46% | 91 |
| College basketball M-OH @ JMU | James Madison | no line | 46% | 91 |
| NFL LV @ NYJ | Raiders | NYJ -1.5 | 45% | 91 |
| NBA OKC @ HOU | Thunder | no line | 45% | 90 |
| College football WIS @ IOWA | Wisconsin | iowa -2.5 | 45% | 90 |
| College football WSU @ SDSU | Washington State Ratings like the dog | san-diego-state -2.5 | 45% | 89 |
| NFL KC @ DEN | Broncos Ratings like the dog | KC -1 | 44% | 89 |
| College football MRSH @ ODU | Old Dominion | marshall -3 | 43% | 86 |
| NFL ATL @ TB | Falcons | TB -2.5 | 42% | 84 |
| College football KSU @ COLO | Kansas State Ratings like the dog | colorado -3 | 42% | 83 |
| College basketball MSM @ XAV | Mount St. Mary's | no line | 41% | 83 |
Is a ratings split worth anything?
- NFL: underdogs won 34% of 1,795 backtest games; those given 40-50% won 45%; when our ratings picked the underdog (219 games), the market's favorite still won 56%; the underdog won 44% against the 42% the market expected.
- College football: underdogs won 27% of 4,372 backtest games; those given 40-50% won 46%; when our ratings picked the underdog (553 games), the market's favorite still won 57%; the underdog won 43% against the 41% the market expected.
- NBA: underdogs won 32% of 8,915 backtest games; those given 40-50% won 46%; when our ratings picked the underdog (1,169 games), the market's favorite still won 57%; the underdog won 43% against the 41% the market expected.
Honest read: in a split, the market's favorite still wins most of the time, and underdogs have won only a point or two more often than the market said, a gap that chance alone can produce. We flag the split because it is where the debate is, not because the underdog is a good bet.
What changed
Newest first. A pick flip, a 3-point swing in our chance, a 1-point line move or a key player's status change.
- NBA PHI @ CHA Pick flipped to PHI
- There's no betting line yet, so this came from our own numbers: newer results, the injury report or rest.
- This game sits near a coin flip, so a small change is enough to flip the pick.
- NBA SAC @ MEM MEM up from 78% to 81%
- There's no betting line yet, so this came from our own numbers: newer results, the injury report or rest.
- NBA MIN @ SAS SAS up from 66% to 72%
- There's no betting line yet, so this came from our own numbers: newer results, the injury report or rest.