Murray State vs Tennessee State
College basketball 2026-27 · Missouri Valley vs Ohio Valley · · Gentry Center
A probability, not a promise. A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Tennessee State can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Tennessee State in our ratings.
- Simulation: Tennessee State win 2,525 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Tennessee State's offense (109.6 points per 100 possessions, 142nd in Division I) meets a Murray State defense that ranks 245th.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Tennessee State 28th (19.8), Murray State 231st (15.8) of 365.
- Strength: Tennessee State rank 28th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (19.8).
Disadvantages Why Tennessee State may not
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Murray State about 3.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Upset odds: Murray State win 2,475 of 5,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Murray State's shooting (53.8% eFG%, 70th in Division I) meets a Tennessee State defense that ranks 190th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Tennessee State lose by 14 or more.
- Strength of schedule: Murray State 132nd (+0.2), Tennessee State 247th (-0.3) of 365.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | Pick'em |
| Total points | n/a | 157.8 |
| Win chance | MUR n/a · TNST n/a | MUR 50% · TNST 50% |
| Fair moneyline | MUR +102 · TNST -102 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Tennessee State 79, Murray State 79.
- 80% of simulations land between Murray State by 14 and Tennessee State by 14.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MUR Murray State
Every regular played last game.
TNST Tennessee State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MUR | TNST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +4.0 109 | Net rating | +4.0 107 |
| 115.0 61 | Offensive rating | 109.6 142 |
| 111.0 245 | Defensive rating | 105.6 98 |
| +0.2 132 | Strength of schedule | -0.3 247 |
| 53.8% 70 | Effective FG% | 50.0% 234 |
| 52.4% 236 | Opponent eFG% | 51.6% 190 |
| 16.3 158 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.7 176 |
| 32.6% 100 | Offensive rebound % | 34.8% 53 |
| 35.0% 120 | 3-point % | 33.3% 207 |
| 72.3 30 | Pace | 71.1 66 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-02-10 | 2021-22 | Murray State 73 @ Tennessee State 62 | MUR |
| 2022-01-13 | 2021-22 | Tennessee State 44 @ Murray State 67 | MUR |
| 2021-01-28 | 2020-21 | Tennessee State 53 @ Murray State 73 | MUR |
| 2020-02-08 | 2019-20 | Murray State 73 @ Tennessee State 65 | MUR |
| 2020-01-25 | 2019-20 | Tennessee State 64 @ Murray State 76 | MUR |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works