Mount St. Mary's @ Xavier
College basketball 2026-27 · Metro vs Big East · · Cintas Center
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Xavier can win
- Home court: Xavier play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Xavier 21st (13.9), Mount St. Mary's 363rd (22.4) of 365.
- Simulation: Xavier win 2,930 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Strength of schedule: Xavier 34th (+1.3), Mount St. Mary's 264th (-0.4) of 365.
- Three-point shooting: Xavier 39th (36.5%), Mount St. Mary's 243rd (32.7%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Xavier may not
- Upset odds: Mount St. Mary's win 2,070 of 5,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Mount St. Mary's in our ratings.
- Mount St. Mary's's shooting (50.6% eFG%, 208th in Division I) meets a Xavier defense that ranks 302nd.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Mount St. Mary's about 1.4 points stronger over recent games.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Mount St. Mary's 115th (32.3%), Xavier 310th (26.5%) of 365.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | XAV -2.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 152.2 |
| Win chance | MSM n/a · XAV n/a | MSM 41% · XAV 59% |
| Fair moneyline | MSM +141 · XAV -141 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Xavier 77, Mount St. Mary's 75.
- 80% of simulations land between Mount St. Mary's by 11 and Xavier by 16.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MSM Mount St. Mary's
Every regular played last game.
XAV Xavier
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MSM | XAV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -4.6 243 | Net rating | -3.2 227 |
| 99.9 327 | Offensive rating | 109.2 149 |
| 104.5 78 | Defensive rating | 112.4 277 |
| -0.4 264 | Strength of schedule | +1.3 34 |
| 50.6% 208 | Effective FG% | 51.8% 155 |
| 47.2% 23 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 302 |
| 22.4 363 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 21 |
| 32.3% 115 | Offensive rebound % | 26.5% 310 |
| 32.7% 243 | 3-point % | 36.5% 39 |
| 68.0 230 | Pace | 71.7 44 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
Game chat
Sign in or create a free account to chat.
Be a good sport: no threats, hate, personal details or spam. Open the full chat
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works