Kent State @ Louisiana Tech
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Conference USA · · Thomas Assembly Center
A probability, not a promise. A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Kent State can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Kent State about 5.5 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Kent State win 2,635 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Kent State 118th (35.0%), Louisiana Tech 358th (28.5%) of 365.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Kent State 11th (0.32), Louisiana Tech 283rd (0.22) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: Kent State 171st (-0.0), Louisiana Tech 300th (-0.6) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Kent State may not
- Home court: Louisiana Tech play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Upset odds: Louisiana Tech win 2,365 of 5,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Kent State lose by 13 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Louisiana Tech 104th (17.8), Kent State 219th (16.1) of 365.
- Weak spot: Kent State rank 328th of 365 in points allowed per game (80.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KENT -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 148 |
| Win chance | KENT n/a · LT n/a | KENT 53% · LT 47% |
| Fair moneyline | KENT -111 · LT +111 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Louisiana Tech 75, Kent State 75.
- 80% of simulations land between Kent State by 15 and Louisiana Tech by 13.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
KENT Kent State
Every regular played last game.
LT Louisiana Tech
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| KENT | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +2.2 140 | Net rating | +0.1 176 |
| 112.1 100 | Offensive rating | 103.6 277 |
| 109.9 219 | Defensive rating | 103.5 67 |
| -0.0 171 | Strength of schedule | -0.6 300 |
| 51.4% 175 | Effective FG% | 47.4% 328 |
| 52.1% 219 | Opponent eFG% | 48.7% 51 |
| 18.0 269 | Turnovers per 100 | 18.3 286 |
| 35.3% 39 | Offensive rebound % | 36.4% 21 |
| 35.0% 118 | 3-point % | 28.5% 358 |
| 73.4 17 | Pace | 65.5 331 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works