Miami (OH) @ James Madison
College basketball 2026-27 · MAC vs Sun Belt · · Atlantic Union Bank Center
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Miami (OH) can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Miami (OH) about 5.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Miami (OH)'s offense (119.6 points per 100 possessions, 18th in Division I) meets a James Madison defense that ranks 223rd.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Miami (OH) 26th (+13.6), James Madison 170th (+0.4) of 365.
- Simulation: Miami (OH) win 2,725 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Miami (OH) in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Miami (OH) may not
- Home court: James Madison play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Upset odds: James Madison win 2,275 of 5,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- James Madison's shooting (53.1% eFG%, 97th in Division I) meets a Miami (OH) defense that ranks 167th.
- Strength of schedule: James Madison 176th (-0.1), Miami (OH) 306th (-0.6) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Miami (OH) lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | M-OH -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 154.4 |
| Win chance | M-OH n/a · JMU n/a | M-OH 55% · JMU 46% |
| Fair moneyline | M-OH -120 · JMU +120 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: James Madison 77, Miami (OH) 78.
- 80% of simulations land between Miami (OH) by 15 and James Madison by 13.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
M-OH Miami (OH)
Every regular played last game.
JMU James Madison
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| M-OH | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +13.6 26 | Net rating | +0.4 170 |
| 119.6 18 | Offensive rating | 110.6 125 |
| 106.1 107 | Defensive rating | 110.2 223 |
| -0.6 306 | Strength of schedule | -0.1 176 |
| 58.6% 6 | Effective FG% | 53.1% 97 |
| 51.2% 167 | Opponent eFG% | 49.0% 66 |
| 14.3 34 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.3 226 |
| 25.5% 331 | Offensive rebound % | 30.6% 175 |
| 37.1% 25 | 3-point % | 35.4% 94 |
| 72.1 33 | Pace | 67.5 252 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2012-11-24 | 2012-13 | James Madison 58 @ Miami (OH) 76 | M-OH |
| 2011-02-19 | 2010-11 | Miami (OH) 69 @ James Madison 70 | JMU |
Your pick
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What if?
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works