LA Clippers @ Golden State Warriors
NBA 2026-27 ·
- LA Clippers 1-4 · 14th in the West · 4th in the Pacific · L4
- Golden State Warriors 3-3 · 10th in the West · 2nd in the Pacific · W3
Game day
No over/under posted yet · our projected total 226.4
- Starting lineups Teams usually confirm their starters about 30 minutes before tip-off.
- Tip-off
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (12.5 points in a typical NBA game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Warriors +6.0, Clippers -6.4.
- Injury report: the Clippers list Jordan Miller (out). That is about 3 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Team matchup: where the Warriors can take advantage. Their ball pressure (5th of 30) meets the Clippers ball security (20th), so look for them to turn steals into easy points in transition. And their offensive rebounding (11th of 30) meets the Clippers defensive rebounding (25th): a chance to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: At forward, Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors: 19.8 pts, 7.8 reb, 3.3 ast, Game Score 14.3; filling in for Kristaps Porzingis, out, not with team) has the edge on Derrick Jones Jr. (Clippers: 10.3 pts, 3.5 reb, 1.4 ast, Game Score 8.9); best player against best player, Stephen Curry (Warriors: 26.8 pts, 3.6 reb, 4.6 ast, Game Score 19.6; filling in for Jimmy Butler III, out, right acl repair / surgery) has the edge on Darius Garland (Clippers: 20.4 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.4 ast, Game Score 14.3; filling in for Jordan Miller, out, left rotator cuff surgery).
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Injury report: the Warriors list Kristaps Porzingis (out). That is about 4 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Upset odds: the Clippers win 3,690 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- The Clippers' offense (113.8 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Warriors defense that ranks 17th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Clippers 3rd (0.24), Warriors 23rd (0.20).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 13 or more.
- Team matchup: where the Clippers can push back. Their shooting efficiency (4th of 30) meets the Warriors shooting defense (22nd), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (14th of 30) meets the Warriors ball security (27th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Warriors on paper, but Darius Garland (20.4 pts, 2.3 reb, 6.4 ast, Game Score 14.3; filling in for Jordan Miller, out, left rotator cuff surgery) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · GSW n/a | LAC 37% · GSW 63% |
| Moneyline | LAC +171 · GSW -171 (fair) |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 116, Clippers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Clippers by 13 and Warriors by 21.
Who's playing?
LAC Clippers
- Jordan Miller Out Injury/Illness - Left Rotator Cuff Surgery
- Bradley Beal Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Injury Management
- Rui Hachimura Available Injury/Illness - Left Quad Soreness
- Brandon Ingram Out Injury/Illness - Right Heel Surgery
- Yanic Konan Niederhauser Out Injury/Illness - Right Lisfranc Surgery
- Max Strus Out Injury/Illness - Right Plantar Fascia Tear
GSW Warriors
- Gui Santos Questionable Injury/Illness - Left Knee Tendinitis
- Kristaps Porzingis Out Not With Team
- Jimmy Butler III Out Injury/Illness - Right ACL Repair / Surgery
- Moses Moody Out Injury/Illness - Left Patellar Tendon Repair / Surgery
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| LAC | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| +0.6 15 | Net rating | -0.5 19 |
| 113.8 10 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 113.2 18 | Defensive rating | 112.7 17 |
| 55.8% 4 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 54.7% 19 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 22 |
| 14.7 20 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 23.8% 23 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 11 |
| 36.9% 5 | 3-point % | 35.9% 14 |
| 99.6 29 | Pace | 102.2 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 2025-26 | GSW 126 @ LAC 121 | GSW |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | GSW 110 @ LAC 115 | LAC |
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | LAC 114 @ GSW 101 | LAC |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | GSW 102 @ LAC 103 | LAC |
| 2025-10-28 | 2025-26 | LAC 79 @ GSW 98 | GSW |
Game chat
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so the ratings lean on scoring margins and efficiency.