- Milwaukee Bucks 1-5 · 14th in the East · 5th in the Central · L2
- Minnesota Timberwolves 4-3 · 9th in the West · 4th in the Northwest · L1
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 232.4
- Starting lineups
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -11.8 |
| Total | n/a | 232.4 |
| Moneyline | n/a | MIL +447 MIN -447 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 8.6 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Timberwolves +6.4, Bucks -13.4.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.0 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Timberwolves 11th (+2.7), Bucks 25th (-6.6).
- Team matchup: where the Timberwolves can take advantage. Their shooting efficiency (9th of 30) meets the Bucks shooting defense (27th), so look for them to get clean looks against a defense that gives them up. And their ball pressure (15th of 30) meets the Bucks ball security (25th): a chance to turn steals into easy points in transition.
- Star matchup: no key position clearly favors the Timberwolves. The closest: at forward, Jaime Jaquez Jr. (Bucks: 16.2 pts, 7.2 reb, 3.0 ast, Game Score 12.7) is about even with Jaden McDaniels (Timberwolves: 15.2 pts, 4.6 reb, 2.8 ast, Game Score 11.6; filling in for Rudy Gobert, out, low back spasms).
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 8,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Injury report: the Timberwolves list Anthony Edwards (out). That is about 6 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 5 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Team matchup: the Bucks have no clear unit-against-unit edge, so their path runs through a hot shooting night or a cold one from the favorite.
- Star matchup: Best player against best player, Kevin Porter Jr. (Bucks: 17.4 pts, 5.2 reb, 7.4 ast, Game Score 16.0) has the edge on Ayo Dosunmu (Timberwolves: 14.8 pts, 4.2 reb, 3.7 ast, Game Score 12.1; filling in for Anthony Edwards, out, right knee arthroscopy).
- Upset odds: the Bucks win 1,830 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's playing?
MIL Bucks
Nobody listed.
MIN Timberwolves
- Anthony Edwards Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Arthroscopy
- Rudy Gobert Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Spasms
- Donte DiVincenzo Out Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Repair / Surgery
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read).
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| MIL | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| -6.6 25 | Net rating | +2.7 11 |
| 110.1 24 | Offensive rating | 112.8 13 |
| 116.7 27 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 56.2% 3 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 55.8% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 15.2 25 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 16 |
| 21.8% 30 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 38.3% 2 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 100.7 22 | Pace | 103.7 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-26 | MIN 139 @ MIL 106 | MIN |
| 2025-12-21 | 2025-26 | MIL 100 @ MIN 103 | MIN |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | MIN 103 @ MIL 110 | MIL |
| 2025-02-12 | 2024-25 | MIL 103 @ MIN 101 | MIL |
| 2024-02-23 | 2023-24 | MIL 112 @ MIN 107 | MIL |
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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