- Boston Celtics 4-1 · 3rd in the East · 2nd in the Atlantic · W4
- Houston Rockets 6-1 · 2nd in the West · 2nd in the Southwest · W1
Game day
No over/under yet · our total 224.2
- Starting lineups
- Tip-off
The line
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -6.1 |
| Total | n/a | 224.2 |
| Moneyline | n/a | BOS +205 HOU -205 fair |
No betting line has been posted for this game yet. Sportsbooks usually post NBA lines the night before or the morning of the game, after the first injury report. Books also take a line down for a while when a key player's status is unclear. We check ESPN and The Odds API several times a day and add the line as soon as there is one.
10,000 simulated games
Your pick
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Our number.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Back-to-back: the Celtics played last night; teams on no rest lose about 2 points of strength.
- Home court: the Rockets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Team matchup: no unit-against-unit mismatch clearly favors the Rockets. The nearest thing to one: their offensive rebounding (1st of 30) meets the Celtics defensive rebounding (4th), close to even, so this is more about execution than one area to exploit.
- Star matchup: At guard, Amen Thompson (Rockets: 18.2 pts, 7.6 reb, 5.2 ast, Game Score 17.1) has the edge on Payton Pritchard (Celtics: 16.8 pts, 3.8 reb, 5.1 ast, Game Score 13.7).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Injury report: the Rockets list Reed Sheppard (out). That is about 4 points of Game Score a night they have to replace.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Celtics 2nd (12.7), Rockets 26th (15.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.3).
- Team matchup: a strength the Rockets may not get to use. Their offensive rebounding (1st of 30) meets the Celtics defensive rebounding (4th), one of the better units at stopping it, which can take away their plan to crash the glass for second chances.
- Star matchup: the key positions lean the Rockets on paper, but Jayson Tatum (23.2 pts, 9.5 reb, 6.1 ast, Game Score 18.5) is the kind of player who can swing one game.
- Upset odds: the Celtics win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
🥭 Mango Sliced Facts
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Team news
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Headlines from ESPN and CBS Sports, each linked to the full story. Injuries, lineups, suspensions and coaching news come first. We leave out rumors, gossip about players' private lives and betting promos.
Who's playing?
BOS Celtics
- Mitchell Robinson Questionable Rest
- Devin Carter Out Injury/Illness - Illness
HOU Rockets
- Reed Sheppard Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Soreness
- Fred VanVleet Out Injury/Illness - Right Knee Injury Management
- Steven Adams Out Injury/Illness - Right Soleus Strain
- Quadir Copeland Out G League - Two - Way
- Julian Phillips Out G League - Two - Way
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read).
Also checked (who played in recent games, ESPN team rosters, ESPN and CBS Sports news): nothing beyond the report.
Side by side
| BOS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 6-1 |
| +7.5 3 | Net rating | +5.3 6 |
| 116.6 2 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 109.1 5 | Defensive rating | 109.3 6 |
| 55.1% 10 | Effective FG% | 53.9% 18 |
| 52.2% 4 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 12.7 2 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.3 26 |
| 28.9% 6 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 36.5% 7 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 98.2 30 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | BOS 114 @ HOU 93 | BOS |
| 2025-11-01 | 2025-26 | HOU 128 @ BOS 101 | HOU |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | HOU 114 @ BOS 112 | HOU |
| 2025-01-03 | 2024-25 | BOS 109 @ HOU 86 | BOS |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023-24 | BOS 116 @ HOU 107 | BOS |
Based on power ratings only (no betting line yet). How it works
Few lines logged this season yet, so this leans on our power ratings.
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