CHI
BOS
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
81% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 8,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,920 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Bulls 22nd (0.20), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -11.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · BOS n/a | CHI 19% · BOS 81% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +421 · BOS -421 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 123, Bulls 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 6 and Celtics by 28.
Side by side
| CHI | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | CHI 99 @ BOS 134 | BOS |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | CHI 105 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ CHI 114 | CHI |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 101 @ BOS 115 | BOS |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | CHI 100 @ BOS 122 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works