Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.1 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 8,600 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Bulls -16.2.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 1,400 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Bulls 22nd (0.20), Celtics 29th (0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | BOS -14 | BOS -14 |
| Total points | 236 | 236 |
| Win chance | CHI n/a · BOS n/a | CHI 14% · BOS 86% |
| Fair moneyline | CHI +615 · BOS -615 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 125, Bulls 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Bulls by 3 and Celtics by 30.
- The Celtics cover the spread in 48% of simulations.
- The game goes over 236 in 50%.
Who's playing?
CHI Bulls
- Jalen Smith Available
- Patrick Williams Available
- Tobe Awaka Available
- Nic Claxton Out Injury/Illness - Left Hamstring Strain
- Dailyn Swain Out Injury/Illness - Right Low Back
BOS Celtics
- Devin Carter Out Injury/Illness - Illness
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| CHI | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -5.5 24 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 110.1 25 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 115.6 25 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 54.3% 14 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.3% 21 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.5 17 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.4% 26 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.0% 22 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 105.5 3 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | CHI 99 @ BOS 134 | BOS |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | CHI 105 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | BOS 111 @ CHI 114 | CHI |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 101 @ BOS 115 | BOS |
| 2025-01-29 | 2024-25 | CHI 100 @ BOS 122 | BOS |
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works