IND
CHI
Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Pacers win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.0 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- History: the Pacers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Pacers defense that ranks 22nd.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.9 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · CHI n/a | IND 52% · CHI 48% |
| Fair moneyline | IND -110 · CHI +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 120, Pacers 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Pacers by 18 and Bulls by 16.
Side by side
| IND | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.2 26 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 108.4 27 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 115.6 24 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 53.3% 22 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 55.4% 22 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 14.0 12 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 21.8% 29 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 35.3% 20 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 103.9 9 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | IND 145 @ CHI 126 | IND |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | CHI 110 @ IND 113 | IND |
| 2025-12-05 | 2025-26 | IND 120 @ CHI 105 | IND |
| 2025-11-29 | 2025-26 | CHI 101 @ IND 103 | IND |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | IND 103 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works