NYK
PHI
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,520 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.6 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · PHI n/a | NYK 55% · PHI 45% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -121 · PHI +121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 111, Knicks 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 19 and 76ers by 15.
Side by side
| NYK | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 2026-27 | PHI 106 @ NYK 100 | PHI |
| 2026-05-10 | Playoffs | NYK 144 @ PHI 114 | NYK |
| 2026-05-08 | Playoffs | NYK 108 @ PHI 94 | NYK |
| 2026-05-06 | Playoffs | PHI 102 @ NYK 108 | NYK |
| 2026-05-04 | Playoffs | PHI 98 @ NYK 137 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works