New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers
NBA 2026-27 · · NBA Cup - Group Play
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,880 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Knicks' offense (116.4 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
- Point differential per game: Knicks 3rd (+7.6), 76ers 20th (-1.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Knicks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,120 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Knicks 25th (0.19).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | NYK -3 | NYK -3 |
| Total points | 225.5 | 225.5 |
| Win chance | NYK n/a · PHI n/a | NYK 59% · PHI 41% |
| Fair moneyline | NYK -142 · PHI +142 |
Line from our last data refresh (the-odds-api consensus (last snapshot before tip-off)); it moves until tip-off. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 112, Knicks 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Knicks by 19 and 76ers by 14.
- The 76ers cover the spread in 47% of simulations.
- The game goes over 225.5 in 51%.
Who's playing?
NYK Knicks
- Karl-Anthony Towns Available Injury/Illness - Left Wrist Sprain
- Jose Alvarado Out Injury/Illness - Left Ankle Sprain
PHI 76ers
- Jaylen Brown Out Injury/Illness - Left Patellar
- Dominick Barlow Out Injury/Illness - Low Back Stress Reaction
- Jabari Walker Out Injury/Illness - Left Patellar Tendinopathy
- Tacko Fall Out Injury/Illness - Left Quadriceps Strain
- Ariel Hukporti Out Injury/Illness - Right Achilles Tendon Rupture / Tear
From the NBA's official injury report (latest version we read). Teams must update it through the day; the final word comes about 30 minutes before tip-off. Out counts fully in our numbers, doubtful three-quarters, questionable about a third.
Side by side
| NYK | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| +7.6 3 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 116.4 3 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 108.7 4 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 55.6% 5 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 53.3% 7 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 13.7 9 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 29.3% 5 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 37.5% 3 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 99.8 28 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | 2026-27 | PHI 106 @ NYK 100 | PHI |
| 2026-05-10 | Playoffs | NYK 144 @ PHI 114 | NYK |
| 2026-05-08 | Playoffs | NYK 108 @ PHI 94 | NYK |
| 2026-05-06 | Playoffs | PHI 102 @ NYK 108 | NYK |
| 2026-05-04 | Playoffs | PHI 98 @ NYK 137 | NYK |
Game chat
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Basis: market line + adjustments. 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works