PHI
CHA
Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
They play soon: see the game page with the betting line and the injury report.
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Home court: the Hornets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 5,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Three-point shooting: Hornets 4th (37.2%), 76ers 23rd (34.7%).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a 76ers defense that ranks 16th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Hornets -7.2.
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): 76ers 5th (13.1), Hornets 28th (15.6).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: 76ers 9th (14.8), Hornets 28th (12.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CHA n/a | PHI 48% · CHA 52% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +110 · CHA -110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 111, 76ers 111.
- 80% of simulations land between 76ers by 16 and Hornets by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| -0.9 20 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 111.2 19 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 112.1 16 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 52.7% 27 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 54.0% 11 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 13.1 5 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 25.1% 18 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 34.7% 23 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 102.7 13 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | PHI 118 @ CHA 114 | PHI |
| 2026-01-26 | 2025-26 | PHI 93 @ CHA 130 | CHA |
| 2025-10-25 | 2025-26 | CHA 121 @ PHI 125 | PHI |
| 2024-12-20 | 2024-25 | CHA 98 @ PHI 108 | PHI |
| 2024-12-16 | 2024-25 | PHI 121 @ CHA 108 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works