TOR
CHI
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Bulls -16.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Bulls 24th (-5.5).
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Bulls win 2,830 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 9 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -7.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.7 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · CHI n/a | TOR 72% · CHI 28% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -253 · CHI +253 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 114, Raptors 122.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 24 and Bulls by 9.
Side by side
| TOR | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | CHI 92 @ TOR 135 | TOR |
| 2026-03-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 139 @ CHI 109 | TOR |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | TOR 110 @ CHI 101 | TOR |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | CHI 107 @ TOR 123 | TOR |
| 2025-04-01 | 2024-25 | TOR 118 @ CHI 137 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works