Lafayette @ Butler
College basketball 2026-27 · Patriot vs Big East · · Hinkle Fieldhouse
A probability, not a promise. A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Butler can win
- Simulation: Butler win 3,775 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Butler 133rd (+2.6), Lafayette 303rd (-9.3) of 365.
- Home court: Butler play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Butler's offense (111.7 points per 100 possessions, 106th in Division I) meets a Lafayette defense that ranks 274th.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Butler about 1.7 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Butler may not
- Upset odds: Lafayette win 1,225 of 5,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Butler lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Butler rank 274th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (15.1).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Lafayette 88th (71.4%), Butler 163rd (70.0%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Butler rank 252nd of 365 in points allowed per game (77.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BTLR -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 150.2 |
| Win chance | LAF n/a · BTLR n/a | LAF 24% · BTLR 76% |
| Fair moneyline | LAF +307 · BTLR -307 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Butler 79, Lafayette 71.
- 80% of simulations land between Lafayette by 7 and Butler by 22.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
LAF Lafayette
Every regular played last game.
BTLR Butler
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| LAF | BTLR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -9.3 303 | Net rating | +2.6 133 |
| 102.9 289 | Offensive rating | 111.7 106 |
| 112.2 274 | Defensive rating | 109.1 195 |
| -0.5 272 | Strength of schedule | +0.7 84 |
| 49.3% 278 | Effective FG% | 50.9% 199 |
| 53.6% 286 | Opponent eFG% | 51.9% 208 |
| 15.3 90 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.9 132 |
| 25.8% 325 | Offensive rebound % | 34.6% 58 |
| 32.2% 272 | 3-point % | 32.7% 241 |
| 67.2 273 | Pace | 71.1 69 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works