Miami vs Florida
College basketball 2026-27 · ACC vs SEC · · Benchmark International Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Florida can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Florida about 6.1 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Florida win 4,130 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Florida's shooting (54.1% eFG%, 63rd in Division I) meets a Miami defense that ranks 198th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Florida in our ratings.
- Strength: Florida rank 2nd of 365 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (43.3%).
Disadvantages Why Florida may not
- Upset odds: Miami win 870 of 5,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Three-point shooting: Miami 127th (34.9%), Florida 314th (31.2%) of 365.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Miami 87th (18.2), Florida 268th (15.3) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Florida lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Florida rank 314th of 365 in three-point shooting (31.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | FLA -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 153.4 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · FLA n/a | MIA 17% · FLA 83% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +473 · FLA -473 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Florida 82, Miami 71.
- 80% of simulations land between Miami by 4 and Florida by 24.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MIA Miami
Every regular played last game.
FLA Florida
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MIA | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +14.8 22 | Net rating | +21.7 8 |
| 117.9 37 | Offensive rating | 120.9 8 |
| 103.0 58 | Defensive rating | 99.3 22 |
| +0.5 97 | Strength of schedule | +1.7 16 |
| 55.3% 32 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 63 |
| 51.7% 198 | Opponent eFG% | 46.1% 10 |
| 16.2 150 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 160 |
| 37.2% 14 | Offensive rebound % | 43.3% 2 |
| 34.9% 127 | 3-point % | 31.2% 314 |
| 69.2 169 | Pace | 72.0 34 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | Miami 68 @ Florida 82 (neutral) | FLA |
| 2019-11-22 | 2019-20 | Miami 58 @ Florida 78 (neutral) | FLA |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016-17 | Miami 56 @ Florida 65 (neutral) | FLA |
| 2015-12-08 | 2015-16 | Florida 55 @ Miami 66 | MIA |
| 2014-11-17 | 2014-15 | Miami 69 @ Florida 67 | MIA |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works