North Carolina Central @ Georgia
College basketball 2026-27 · MEAC vs SEC · · Stegeman Coliseum
A probability, not a promise. A 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Georgia can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Georgia about 7.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Georgia 33rd (+12.8), North Carolina Central 340th (-14.4) of 365.
- Simulation: Georgia win 4,585 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Georgia's shooting (54.2% eFG%, 61st in Division I) meets a North Carolina Central defense that ranks 317th.
- Georgia's offense (119.7 points per 100 possessions, 17th in Division I) meets a North Carolina Central defense that ranks 330th.
Disadvantages Why Georgia may not
- Upset odds: North Carolina Central win 415 of 5,000 simulations (8%). A 92% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Weak spot: Georgia rank 335th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (65.1%).
- Weak spot: Georgia rank 314th of 365 in points allowed per game (79.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UGA -14.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 156 |
| Win chance | NCCU n/a · UGA n/a | NCCU 8% · UGA 92% |
| Fair moneyline | NCCU +1099 · UGA -1099 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Georgia 85, North Carolina Central 70.
- 80% of simulations land between Georgia by 2 and Georgia by 29.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
NCCU North Carolina Central
Every regular played last game.
UGA Georgia
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| NCCU | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -14.4 340 | Net rating | +12.8 33 |
| 101.0 313 | Offensive rating | 119.7 17 |
| 115.5 330 | Defensive rating | 106.9 130 |
| -0.8 329 | Strength of schedule | +1.2 47 |
| 47.5% 327 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 61 |
| 54.5% 317 | Opponent eFG% | 50.6% 134 |
| 18.1 278 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 31 |
| 30.0% 201 | Offensive rebound % | 34.9% 49 |
| 32.6% 246 | 3-point % | 33.8% 184 |
| 66.9 281 | Pace | 74.7 8 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | 2023-24 | North Carolina Central 54 @ Georgia 64 | UGA |
| 2019-12-04 | 2019-20 | North Carolina Central 59 @ Georgia 95 | UGA |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works