Tennessee Tech @ Mississippi State
College basketball 2026-27 · SoCon vs SEC · · Humphrey Coliseum
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mississippi State can win
- Simulation: Mississippi State win 3,375 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Mississippi State play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Strength of schedule: Mississippi State 49th (+1.1), Tennessee Tech 303rd (-0.6) of 365.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mississippi State 146th (16.1), Tennessee Tech 323rd (19.1) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Mississippi State about 0.7 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Mississippi State may not
- Upset odds: Tennessee Tech win 1,625 of 5,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to Tennessee Tech in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Mississippi State lose by 9 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Tennessee Tech 124th (0.27), Mississippi State 335th (0.20) of 365.
- Weak spot: Mississippi State rank 357th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MSST -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 152.3 |
| Win chance | TNTC n/a · MSST n/a | TNTC 32% · MSST 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TNTC +208 · MSST -208 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mississippi State 79, Tennessee Tech 74.
- 80% of simulations land between Tennessee Tech by 9 and Mississippi State by 18.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
TNTC Tennessee Tech
Every regular played last game.
MSST Mississippi State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| TNTC | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -7.8 285 | Net rating | -5.8 261 |
| 102.9 290 | Offensive rating | 107.4 201 |
| 110.7 232 | Defensive rating | 113.2 295 |
| -0.6 303 | Strength of schedule | +1.1 49 |
| 48.9% 292 | Effective FG% | 51.5% 172 |
| 51.5% 186 | Opponent eFG% | 50.9% 154 |
| 19.1 323 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.1 146 |
| 31.3% 151 | Offensive rebound % | 29.8% 210 |
| 31.1% 315 | 3-point % | 32.4% 261 |
| 68.3 213 | Pace | 72.3 29 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works