Chicago State @ Texas
College basketball 2026-27 · NEC vs SEC · · Moody Center
A probability, not a promise. A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Texas can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Texas about 8.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Texas win 4,705 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Texas 65th (+8.2), Chicago State 347th (-17.2) of 365.
- Texas's shooting (54.1% eFG%, 65th in Division I) meets a Chicago State defense that ranks 354th.
- Texas's offense (119.0 points per 100 possessions, 22nd in Division I) meets a Chicago State defense that ranks 336th.
Disadvantages Why Texas may not
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Chicago State 20th (20.1), Texas 354th (13.0) of 365.
- Upset odds: Chicago State win 295 of 5,000 simulations (6%). A 94% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Weak spot: Texas rank 354th of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TEX -16.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 146.1 |
| Win chance | CHST n/a · TEX n/a | CHST 6% · TEX 94% |
| Fair moneyline | CHST +1589 · TEX -1589 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Texas 83, Chicago State 66.
- 80% of simulations land between Texas by 3 and Texas by 30.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
CHST Chicago State
Every regular played last game.
TEX Texas
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| CHST | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -17.2 347 | Net rating | +8.2 65 |
| 98.7 337 | Offensive rating | 119.0 22 |
| 115.9 336 | Defensive rating | 110.9 238 |
| -0.4 270 | Strength of schedule | +1.5 29 |
| 45.3% 357 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 65 |
| 56.7% 354 | Opponent eFG% | 50.8% 144 |
| 15.6 113 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 67 |
| 28.3% 255 | Offensive rebound % | 35.4% 35 |
| 32.1% 274 | 3-point % | 35.1% 107 |
| 66.0 313 | Pace | 68.6 198 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 1 meeting
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-12 | 2024-25 | Chicago State 58 @ Texas 105 | TEX |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works