West Georgia @ DePaul
College basketball 2026-27 · UAC vs Big East · · Wintrust Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why DePaul can win
- Simulation: DePaul win 3,895 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: DePaul play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated DePaul about 2.6 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): DePaul 163rd (+1.0), West Georgia 277th (-7.3) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: DePaul 111th (+0.3), West Georgia 327th (-0.8) of 365.
Disadvantages Why DePaul may not
- Upset odds: West Georgia win 1,105 of 5,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): West Georgia 128th (15.9), DePaul 256th (17.8) of 365.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations DePaul lose by 6 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): West Georgia 102nd (71.0%), DePaul 205th (68.9%) of 365.
- Weak spot: DePaul rank 279th of 365 in points per game (70.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEP -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 147 |
| Win chance | WGA n/a · DEP n/a | WGA 22% · DEP 78% |
| Fair moneyline | WGA +352 · DEP -352 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: DePaul 79, West Georgia 71.
- 80% of simulations land between West Georgia by 6 and DePaul by 22.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
WGA West Georgia
Every regular played last game.
DEP DePaul
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| WGA | DEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -7.3 277 | Net rating | +1.0 163 |
| 106.0 226 | Offensive rating | 103.7 276 |
| 113.3 298 | Defensive rating | 102.7 51 |
| -0.8 327 | Strength of schedule | +0.3 111 |
| 49.6% 261 | Effective FG% | 49.8% 243 |
| 53.4% 281 | Opponent eFG% | 49.3% 77 |
| 15.9 128 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.8 256 |
| 31.5% 142 | Offensive rebound % | 30.0% 197 |
| 33.1% 221 | 3-point % | 32.5% 252 |
| 71.0 75 | Pace | 67.7 239 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works