Mercyhurst @ Marquette
College basketball 2026-27 · NEC vs Big East · · Fiserv Forum
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Marquette can win
- Simulation: Marquette win 3,500 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Home court: Marquette play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Strength of schedule: Marquette 61st (+1.0), Mercyhurst 360th (-1.2) of 365.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Marquette 216th (29.7%), Mercyhurst 311th (26.4%) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Marquette about 0.5 points stronger over recent games.
Disadvantages Why Marquette may not
- Upset odds: Mercyhurst win 1,500 of 5,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Marquette lose by 8 or more.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Mercyhurst 153rd (70.1%), Marquette 330th (65.3%) of 365.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Mercyhurst 32nd (14.3), Marquette 144th (16.0) of 365.
- Weak spot: Marquette rank 330th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (65.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MARQ -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 145.4 |
| Win chance | MERC n/a · MARQ n/a | MERC 30% · MARQ 70% |
| Fair moneyline | MERC +233 · MARQ -233 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Marquette 78, Mercyhurst 72.
- 80% of simulations land between Mercyhurst by 8 and Marquette by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
MERC Mercyhurst
Every regular played last game.
MARQ Marquette
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| MERC | MARQ | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -0.6 189 | Net rating | -0.9 193 |
| 104.0 269 | Offensive rating | 106.0 228 |
| 104.6 81 | Defensive rating | 106.9 131 |
| -1.2 360 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 61 |
| 49.5% 269 | Effective FG% | 50.5% 215 |
| 50.1% 107 | Opponent eFG% | 50.6% 131 |
| 14.3 32 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.0 144 |
| 26.4% 311 | Offensive rebound % | 29.7% 216 |
| 32.1% 275 | 3-point % | 31.7% 296 |
| 65.6 326 | Pace | 70.9 79 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works