Maine @ Providence
College basketball 2026-27 · America East vs Big East · · Amica Mutual Pavilion
A probability, not a promise. A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Providence can win
- Simulation: Providence win 4,030 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Providence 148th (+1.8), Maine 321st (-11.3) of 365.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Providence about 2.7 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Providence play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Providence 45th (36.4%), Maine 313th (31.2%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Providence may not
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Maine 36th (19.4), Providence 351st (13.1) of 365.
- Upset odds: Maine win 970 of 5,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Providence lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Providence rank 355th of 365 in points allowed per game (84.0).
- Weak spot: Providence rank 351st of 365 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PROV -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 150.4 |
| Win chance | ME n/a · PROV n/a | ME 19% · PROV 81% |
| Fair moneyline | ME +417 · PROV -417 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Providence 80, Maine 70.
- 80% of simulations land between Maine by 5 and Providence by 23.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
ME Maine
Every regular played last game.
PROV Providence
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| ME | PROV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -11.3 321 | Net rating | +1.8 148 |
| 94.3 357 | Offensive rating | 115.0 60 |
| 105.6 99 | Defensive rating | 113.2 297 |
| -0.6 299 | Strength of schedule | +0.8 74 |
| 49.6% 263 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 37 |
| 50.6% 136 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 179 |
| 19.1 324 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.7 174 |
| 19.7% 363 | Offensive rebound % | 31.7% 135 |
| 31.2% 313 | 3-point % | 36.4% 45 |
| 64.9 347 | Pace | 74.2 10 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-20 | 2016-17 | Maine 59 @ Providence 79 | PROV |
| 2013-12-21 | 2013-14 | Maine 70 @ Providence 94 | PROV |
Your pick
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What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works