Army @ Duke
College basketball 2026-27 · Patriot vs ACC · · Cameron Indoor Stadium
A probability, not a promise. Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
Advantages Why Duke can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Duke about 16.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.4 points to Duke in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Duke 1st (+26.9), Army 327th (-11.8) of 365.
- Simulation: Duke win 4,950 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Duke's shooting (56.6% eFG%, 13th in Division I) meets a Army defense that ranks 334th.
Disadvantages Why Duke may not
- Upset odds: Army win 50 of 5,000 simulations (1%). Even a pick this strong still loses about 1 time in 100.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
- Young rosters: freshmen and transfers can change a team's level from one month to the next.
- Small samples: early-season numbers come from a handful of games against very different opponents.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DUKE -27.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 144.8 |
| Win chance | ARMY n/a · DUKE n/a | ARMY 1% · DUKE 99% |
| Fair moneyline | ARMY +9515 · DUKE -9515 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Duke 88, Army 64.
- 80% of simulations land between Duke by 11 and Duke by 38.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
ARMY Army
Every regular played last game.
DUKE Duke
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| ARMY | DUKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -11.8 327 | Net rating | +26.9 1 |
| 103.2 285 | Offensive rating | 122.2 4 |
| 115.0 323 | Defensive rating | 95.2 2 |
| -0.1 186 | Strength of schedule | +2.0 13 |
| 49.3% 279 | Effective FG% | 56.6% 13 |
| 55.1% 334 | Opponent eFG% | 46.2% 13 |
| 17.2 220 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.9 135 |
| 29.6% 219 | Offensive rebound % | 38.4% 4 |
| 32.0% 277 | 3-point % | 34.7% 133 |
| 68.6 199 | Pace | 66.8 284 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | Duke 114 @ Army 59 | DUKE |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | Army 58 @ Duke 100 | DUKE |
| 2021-11-12 | 2021-22 | Army 56 @ Duke 82 | DUKE |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018-19 | Army 72 @ Duke 94 | DUKE |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014-15 | Army 73 @ Duke 93 | DUKE |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works