Florida A&M vs Florida State
College basketball 2026-27 · SWAC vs ACC · · Benchmark International Arena
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Florida State can win
- Simulation: Florida State win 3,505 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Florida State about 3.0 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Florida State 118th (+3.4), Florida A&M 276th (-7.2) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: Florida State 64th (+1.0), Florida A&M 349th (-1.1) of 365.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Florida State 83rd (15.2), Florida A&M 358th (21.5) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Florida State may not
- Upset odds: Florida A&M win 1,495 of 5,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Florida State lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Florida State rank 318th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (65.9%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Florida A&M 198th (69.1%), Florida State 318th (65.9%) of 365.
- Weak spot: Florida State rank 264th of 365 in points allowed per game (77.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | FSU -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 149.6 |
| Win chance | FAMU n/a · FSU n/a | FAMU 30% · FSU 70% |
| Fair moneyline | FAMU +234 · FSU -234 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Florida State 78, Florida A&M 72.
- 80% of simulations land between Florida A&M by 8 and Florida State by 20.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
FAMU Florida A&M
Every regular played last game.
FSU Florida State
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| FAMU | FSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -7.2 276 | Net rating | +3.4 118 |
| 99.2 333 | Offensive rating | 111.9 104 |
| 106.3 113 | Defensive rating | 108.5 183 |
| -1.1 349 | Strength of schedule | +1.0 64 |
| 49.2% 283 | Effective FG% | 52.3% 132 |
| 51.2% 171 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 226 |
| 21.5 358 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.2 83 |
| 30.9% 168 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 170 |
| 32.6% 248 | 3-point % | 33.1% 225 |
| 70.6 92 | Pace | 71.8 41 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works