Rider @ Pittsburgh
College basketball 2026-27 · Metro vs ACC · · Petersen Events Center
A probability, not a promise. A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pittsburgh can win
- Simulation: Pittsburgh win 4,235 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Pittsburgh about 3.8 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Pittsburgh play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pittsburgh 212th (-2.0), Rider 356th (-21.5) of 365.
- Pittsburgh's shooting (51.0% eFG%, 193rd in Division I) meets a Rider defense that ranks 335th.
Disadvantages Why Pittsburgh may not
- Upset odds: Rider win 765 of 5,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Pittsburgh lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: Pittsburgh rank 332nd of 365 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.20).
- Weak spot: Pittsburgh rank 279th of 365 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (53.4%).
- Weak spot: Pittsburgh rank 274th of 365 in points per game (70.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PITT -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 139.8 |
| Win chance | RID n/a · PITT n/a | RID 15% · PITT 85% |
| Fair moneyline | RID +554 · PITT -554 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pittsburgh 81, Rider 69.
- 80% of simulations land between Rider by 3 and Pittsburgh by 25.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
RID Rider
Every regular played last game.
PITT Pittsburgh
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| RID | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -21.5 356 | Net rating | -2.0 212 |
| 95.4 354 | Offensive rating | 108.4 174 |
| 116.9 341 | Defensive rating | 110.4 228 |
| +0.3 113 | Strength of schedule | +0.7 78 |
| 42.8% 364 | Effective FG% | 51.0% 193 |
| 55.2% 335 | Opponent eFG% | 53.4% 279 |
| 16.9 196 | Turnovers per 100 | 17.3 225 |
| 32.6% 101 | Offensive rebound % | 33.9% 72 |
| 27.7% 364 | 3-point % | 33.4% 205 |
| 65.7 322 | Pace | 65.0 344 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-11-13 | 2011-12 | Rider 78 @ Pittsburgh 86 | PITT |
| 2010-12-04 | 2010-11 | Rider 68 @ Pittsburgh 87 | PITT |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works