New Haven @ Syracuse
College basketball 2026-27 · NEC vs ACC · · JMA Wireless Dome
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Syracuse can win
- Simulation: Syracuse win 3,955 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Syracuse about 3.5 points stronger over recent games.
- Home court: Syracuse play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Syracuse 159th (+1.1), New Haven 305th (-9.4) of 365.
- Strength of schedule: Syracuse 38th (+1.3), New Haven 332nd (-0.9) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Syracuse may not
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): New Haven 30th (73.2%), Syracuse 309th (66.4%) of 365.
- Upset odds: New Haven win 1,045 of 5,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Syracuse lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Syracuse rank 309th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (66.4%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.5 points to New Haven in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SYR -8.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 141.3 |
| Win chance | NHVN n/a · SYR n/a | NHVN 21% · SYR 79% |
| Fair moneyline | NHVN +379 · SYR -379 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Syracuse 80, New Haven 71.
- 80% of simulations land between New Haven by 6 and Syracuse by 23.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
NHVN New Haven
Every regular played last game.
SYR Syracuse
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| NHVN | SYR | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -9.4 305 | Net rating | +1.1 159 |
| 96.7 345 | Offensive rating | 108.5 173 |
| 106.1 108 | Defensive rating | 107.4 147 |
| -0.9 332 | Strength of schedule | +1.3 38 |
| 48.7% 295 | Effective FG% | 52.6% 122 |
| 51.8% 203 | Opponent eFG% | 50.3% 116 |
| 17.8 257 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.0 136 |
| 21.5% 358 | Offensive rebound % | 29.2% 228 |
| 30.2% 339 | 3-point % | 32.9% 238 |
| 63.5 362 | Pace | 69.1 172 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works