Maryland Eastern Shore @ Wake Forest
College basketball 2026-27 · MEAC vs ACC · · LJVM Coliseum
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wake Forest can win
- Simulation: Wake Forest win 4,210 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Wake Forest about 4.3 points stronger over recent games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Wake Forest 132nd (+2.7), Maryland Eastern Shore 336th (-13.9) of 365.
- Home court: Wake Forest play at home, worth about 3 points in college basketball, more than in the NBA.
- Strength of schedule: Wake Forest 28th (+1.5), Maryland Eastern Shore 348th (-1.0) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Wake Forest may not
- Upset odds: Maryland Eastern Shore win 790 of 5,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Wake Forest lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: Wake Forest rank 298th of 365 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (67.0%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Maryland Eastern Shore 112th (32.4%), Wake Forest 196th (30.1%) of 365.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAKE -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 144.8 |
| Win chance | UMES n/a · WAKE n/a | UMES 16% · WAKE 84% |
| Fair moneyline | UMES +534 · WAKE -534 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wake Forest 80, Maryland Eastern Shore 69.
- 80% of simulations land between Maryland Eastern Shore by 3 and Wake Forest by 25.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
UMES Maryland Eastern Shore
Every regular played last game.
WAKE Wake Forest
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| UMES | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| -13.9 336 | Net rating | +2.7 132 |
| 94.8 356 | Offensive rating | 112.4 96 |
| 108.7 187 | Defensive rating | 109.7 212 |
| -1.0 348 | Strength of schedule | +1.5 28 |
| 47.8% 318 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 117 |
| 50.7% 142 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 202 |
| 23.8 364 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 106 |
| 32.4% 112 | Offensive rebound % | 30.1% 196 |
| 29.0% 353 | 3-point % | 34.1% 165 |
| 65.8 320 | Pace | 70.2 111 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
These teams have not met since 2009.
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
Our number. Move the slider or flip a player.
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works