UCLA vs Arizona
College basketball 2026-27 · Big Ten vs Big 12 · · T-Mobile Arena · Hall of Fame Series - Las Vegas
A probability, not a promise. A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
Advantages Why Arizona can win
- Season-long ratings: betting lines have rated Arizona about 7.5 points stronger over recent games.
- Simulation: Arizona win 4,410 of 5,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to Arizona in our ratings.
- Arizona's offense (120.3 points per 100 possessions, 12th in Division I) meets a UCLA defense that ranks 132nd.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Arizona 34th (73.1%), UCLA 303rd (66.7%) of 365.
Disadvantages Why Arizona may not
- Upset odds: UCLA win 590 of 5,000 simulations (12%). A 88% pick still loses about 1 time in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations Arizona lose by 1 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: UCLA 76th (18.5), Arizona 199th (16.3) of 365.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three swings college games by 10 points or more.
- Who plays: college basketball has no league-wide injury report, so a late absence can arrive at tip-off.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ARIZ -12.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 149.2 |
| Win chance | UCLA n/a · ARIZ n/a | UCLA 12% · ARIZ 88% |
| Fair moneyline | UCLA +749 · ARIZ -749 |
No betting line for this game yet (many small-conference games get one only on game day). Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
5,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Arizona 81, UCLA 68.
- 80% of simulations land between UCLA by 1 and Arizona by 27.
Still out?
College basketball has no league-wide injury report, so we show what a fan can know before tip-off: regulars who sat out each team's last game. Our model counts them as likely out, exactly as it did in the backtest.
UCLA UCLA
Every regular played last game.
ARIZ Arizona
Every regular played last game.
Check the team's own news before the game; players return and new absences appear at tip-off.
Side by side
| UCLA | ARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | Record | 0-0 |
| +9.1 58 | Net rating | +23.4 5 |
| 116.0 48 | Offensive rating | 120.3 12 |
| 106.9 132 | Defensive rating | 96.9 6 |
| +1.3 36 | Strength of schedule | +2.2 7 |
| 53.4% 85 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 45 |
| 50.4% 120 | Opponent eFG% | 45.3% 4 |
| 13.4 14 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.1 72 |
| 31.0% 162 | Offensive rebound % | 38.4% 5 |
| 37.9% 19 | 3-point % | 36.6% 37 |
| 66.5 296 | Pace | 71.6 49 |
Small numbers are ranks among 365 Division I teams (1 = best; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions; strength of schedule is the average rating of opponents faced (2025-26 season and this season so far).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-14 | 2025-26 | Arizona 69 @ UCLA 65 (neutral) | ARIZ |
| 2024-12-14 | 2024-25 | UCLA 57 @ Arizona 54 (neutral) | UCLA |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | Arizona 88 @ UCLA 65 | ARIZ |
| 2024-01-20 | 2023-24 | UCLA 71 @ Arizona 77 | ARIZ |
| 2023-03-11 | 2022-23 | Arizona 61 @ UCLA 59 (neutral) | ARIZ |
Your pick
Make your pick before kickoff and see how you stack up against the Mango. All picks · Leaderboard
What if?
Change the game and see how the chances move. This starts from our number and shifts the expected margin, using how much real results scatter around the line (11 points in a typical College basketball game).
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Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 5,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 45,615 Division I games since 2017-18. Model version 1. How it works